Not Looking Good!

So after the last meeting where the BOCC hijacked the sales tax process, I decided to do a survey to see if the citizens would support what has been proposed.

Well... let's just say.. not looking good.

Here is the question that I asked.

The proposed sales tax will be used for Pavement Management exclusive to open grade resurfacing, milling and overlay and resurfacing. It will expire in 4 years (2031).

Will you vote for the sales tax in 2026 with those terms?

Pretty straight forward with yes and no options. I wanted it to as closely resemble the ballot language as possible. Yes, it is subject to change a bit, but based on the agenda item for today, my question was pretty darn close.

There were a total of 417 responses.

Based on the total active number of voters in this county, 115,860, we would need a sample size of 383 people to give a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. This is the standard for most surveys. This meets that criteria.

When asked if they will support the sales tax, it was a resounding NO. 76.3% of people said they would not support it based on the wording they chose.

There is no other way to say this but to say this is a huge smack in the face to commissioners. I knew that it would be an uphill battle. I figured it would be close, a few percentage points from passing/failing... but 76.3%... BIG DIFFERENCE.

I also wanted to see where people lived that are voting in the survey, just out of curiosity. I also wanted to make sure this isn't something that all of Pine Ridge/Citrus Springs is filling out while ignoring Crystal River, Inverness and Homosassa.

Looks like we have pretty good representation across the county.

If you wish to see where the districts are, here the GIS map. I color coded the chart above to match the districts on the GIS map.

As you can see... it is pretty even. District 2 is lacking a little bit, but overall, pretty close to 20% across the board. This also means that I did my targeting pretty well when I put some money into getting this distributed on social media.

So... what does all this mean?

Well, if you go by the data, it will suggest the that the sales tax the BOCC is proposing is going to fail.

But we thought the Chamber survey and my other survey showed it was going to pass.

Well they did... sorta. The Chamber asked if people would support it. It ended up being 56% showing support, but margin of error was 5%. Mine showed it a bit closer at 54% approval with 6% margin of error.

But the question has always been... are those proper surveys that are statistically sound? No.

This survey is not either.

You see, statistically sound surveys will make sure to hit the correct voting demographics. If the correct demographic is not accurately portrayed, the results can be skewed and the surveys would be wrong.

Do we know if that is the case with these surveys? No clue. Could be wrong. Could be right. Who knows. That is the reason that the BOCC needs to tap the brakes on this train and slow it down. Do the proper market research and surveying of the community and find out exactly what people want. No harm in doing that and there are ways to do it without spending tax dollars.

If this goes to the ballot and fails, there likely is not another chance to do this in the near future. It will set it back years... maybe that is what the voters want.

That said, is there a route forward for this that could sway the voters?

Yes.

I think the preferred route of the BOCC is to vote for this to go to the ballot at the next meeting, as it is, and then engage the Chamber to market it for a year to educate the public. Basically this would be a giant marketing campaign to convince voters that they need to support this initiative to help their community.

It has the possibility to be successful, but that will involve more workshops, more meetings and more community engagement.... A LOT MORE. Is that something the Chamber wants to do? Do people trust the Chamber enough to go to the meetings and all of that?

A second option is to clean up the language a bit. As it is, "Pavement Management" can mean almost anything. Someone asked me if Inverness Villages IV can be paved with this money (my understanding is no, since there is no pavement).

But it raises a point... what exactly can this be used for and is it possible for the BOCC to use it for other things people did not realize? Very valid point and I would argue yes.

For instance, we heard them say there is a need for this for residential roads. Commissioner Barek has been beating that drum. However, behind the scenes, Commissioner Kinnard asked Ms Lyn to make the language applicable to all public roads, not just residential.

So if people listen to the meetings and assume it will be for residential roads, then vote on it for that... only to find out it can be used for all publicly owned roads... Guess what those people say? The BOCC scammed them.

That is the hesitancy with this. They have no trust in the BOCC. Making the language broad makes sense from the government perspective, as it allows more uses and they can address major needs.. but it does not help the citizens who want THEIR residential roads done or who want to know EXACTLY what the money will be used for.

The BOCC has a chance to address that and make it more narrow and specific. We will see if they take it.

A third option is to wait. Do more market research. Find out exactly what the community wants and stick to that. See what the state does with property taxes as well. Then craft it around all of that. A deliberate process that people can see play out.

A fourth option is to stick to what the Chamber recommended. That is the process this board decided to take, only to flip on it and do their own thing. That is where distrust comes from. They had a process and the BOCC hijacked it to do their own thing.

Why go through the process at all if they aren't going to listen to it?

We will see what route they go. Maybe it is discussed this week.. maybe not...