Job Well Done

Well.. that did not go as expected.

Yesterday, the BOCC decided to tap the brakes on the sales tax referendum and allow an outside non-profit, Trust for Public Lands, to do a proper market research study on the support for the referendum in the community.

I'm shocked honestly. The way this talk has been going, I fully expected the board to ram through the ordinance that they had created at the last meeting. The votes were there... Commissioners Kinnard, Barek and Bays had been a "yes" through the entire process. Commissioner Finegan largely joined them to this point. She has largely told everyone she expected it to fail, but was willing to send it to the voters. She had expressed issues with the lack of a reduction in millage. I could see her being a "no" on what was proposed if a reduction was not included.

Commissioner Davis has been a "no" the entire time because she did not like the process they were going through as it was not statistically sound. Notably, she is the one with the marketing degree on the board and certainly knows a bit about market research and what it should look like.

Over the past few months, she has been working to get the professionals involved... the people that do this type of work for a living. She got North Florida Land Trust to do a green-printing plan, which is basically creating a conservation plan for the county. This was paid for by private donations that Davis had secured. Zero tax dollars.

They are connected to Trust for Public lands, another non-profit that specializes in guiding referendums. They have a 90+% success rate in things that undertake. For us, they will test various sales tax proposals within the community and see where the support is for the sales tax referendum, if it is there. They will then come back to the BOCC with the ballot language they think will pass or suggest to abandon it altogether if the data they collect says it won't pass. Davis got them on board to do this for the county for free as well. Zero cost to tax payers.

She then brought it to the board BEFORE they were able to have their discussion on the sales tax. She made a motion to table the sales tax vote and Commissioner Kinnard seconded it, just for discussion, with no intention to vote for it. She explained it and then convinced the board to go along with it.

At a minimum, the BOCC gets more data to be used for their decision in February/March on whether to move forward with the referendum.

Bravo Commissioner Davis for getting this done and at ZERO tax payer cost to boot. She navigated that to perfection.

Oh how I wish I could be a fly on some people's walls as that discussion and vote was taking place. There as been a push behind the scenes to get this moving forward as quickly as possible... and just like that... poof... no more rush.

Those people are likely livid this morning... and we are partly to blame. The discussions we have had here have put pressure on the board to slow it down to get it right. Joe Hicks has been hammering them with numbers from the budget and all of that over the past few weeks. Other citizens have made their opinions known... and BOCC has actually listened. So good job everyone!

I am calling that a win. I have been saying for weeks that we are going down a path that will lead to certain failure. Many people do not trust the BOCC and they keep making avoidable mistakes. They tossed out their hands off approach and started making their own decisions and having their own conversations. Not a way to earn trust.

Plus, the data they were relying on is not accurate. It did not account for snowbirds, who will be likely voters in November 2026. It also did not test specifics. It was overly broad, likely to suggest greater support than there really was. I did my own survey that showed it would overwhelmingly fail, as 76% of the respondents said they were a "no".

But none were statistically valid. Which is why I have been saying we need a new process and that is what we are getting. Hopefully the BOCC can stay out of this one.

But a win for sure!

One thing concerning me with all this is Commissioner Barek. I understand that she wants residential roads, but the language of the referendum was not residential roads. It would have allowed all roads in Citrus to be included, not just residential roads, but she has been a "yes" this entire time regardless.

She did bring forward her definition of residential roads and maybe she would have voted "no" had the referendum went to vote as it was proposed... but again, she has been a "yes" this entire time.

I have no doubt that people she talks to wants to have the sales tax. She says that is all everyone wants it to be used for. She refuses to believe there may be support for other things. When asked yesterday if she would support a referendum with conservation, if that is what comes back from this study, she said "no". Even if voters say that is what she wants, she said she will "disenfranchise" them by voting only for roads.

She is blinded by her desire to get roads for her district, that she will ignore everything else that may be required to get this passed. But... that is largely how she won, so I can certainly understand her refusal to do anything else.

And it is clear she does not under stand how market research works. She talks about these company only getting 500 or so responses, but they do not need to get tens of thousands. That is not how any of this works.

Which leads me to.... How does all this work?

Let me explain briefly.

Doing a survey or study and including every single voter is impossible... that is what the election is for.. and even then, a large percentage do not show up.

But they do not need to ask every single person. They need to ask the right combination of people based on sample size calculations and all of that. It's basically a math equation.

Citrus County has 116,096 registered voters. This means in order to get a survey with a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error, they only need to reach 383 people. To get a 99% confidence level and 5% margin of error, they only need 662 people. For a 99% confidence level and 1% margin of error, they need 14,555 people. Safe to say, they are likely going for between 383 and 662.

The key here is they need to hit the RIGHT people. A random survey online does not do that. They have to pull voter records and all of that and reach specific voters.

This is not a presidential election year, so turnout will be lower. Back in 2022, the turnout was 62.23%. 76,032 people cast their vote, of which, 60.5% were republican, 20.75% were democrat and 17.2% were independent.

So a proper market research study, would use similar numbers to determine who needs to be surveyed. I would imagine they would try to hit 61% republicans, 21% democrats and 17% independents for the survey. But other factors will come into play like demographics, income, etc.

They will run all those numbers and get a targeted pool of survey respondents. They may do a public portion as well, but my guess is it will be targeted.

So not everyone will participate. Not everyone will know about it. Not everyone will be involved... and that is ok. That is perfectly normal. They do not need to talk to everyone. Just because you are not asked does not mean the survey is invalid.

They need to talk to the proper mix of people based on the research they do to determine who those people are.

Now to be clear... I can support the sales tax. But I need to know the plan for the funds and what projects they intend to use them on. Show the people where their money will go and how it will be used... just saying "on roads" is not enough. This pause now gives time for staff to work the new road software and get that plan in place for how this money will be used if voters approve it.

Excited to see how this plays out.