We Need Help

Yesterday's conversation about the sales tax by the BOCC was great. It is the first time in awhile you could see them working as a team to try to navigate it. In most major decisions, there is one or two people that just can't go along. This discussion, they got along, even if some disagreed.

To recap, the board did not vote to direct staff to create an ordinance. Why? Simply, they wanted more information. Can we fault them for that? This is the first time this group has really discussed it and gotten to a point of potentially putting it on the ballot. Are they supposed to just vote to put something on the ballot and let the people decide if its good enough? Or should there be more community involvement? They opted for more involvement. But then people blast them for not making a decision... Help me make sense of that.

Some people in the community seem to think this is poor leadership... that they needed to make a decision yesterday and get moving. I disagree. You will see why below.

I have debated how I wanted to do this article this morning and I think I decided to dispel some myths I have seen floating around online... and then at the end wrap it up by discussing what is next.

1) What about the Chamber survey and the 700 people that filled it out? Why do they not matter? Everyone just wasted their time.

They matter. They absolutely matter. They got us to this point. They provided a good start to the discussion on where the commissioners need to focus. But it wasn't enough.

I did my survey and got over 350 responses. The purpose of that was to show we needed help. The purpose was to show the commissioners didn't have the answers they needed to vote to move forward.

Here is the thing about surveys that most people don't understand. There is a process in selecting the sample for election related things like this. . The sample is supposed to be a representative of the voting public. Polls/surveys don't ask every single voter their opinion. That is impossible. Instead, they ask a select few (usually 500 or 1000 depending on which poll), but those people represent the likely voters in that upcoming election. They are hand selected.

Same with tv ratings. Networks don't know exactly how many people tuned in. Nielson does not monitor hundreds of millions of TV feeds to see who is watching what. No, they use a handful of people in each market and then extrapolate that data to determine total number of viewers.

Same thing here. The problem with the Chamber survey and my survey is that the people were not hand selected and we do not know if they represent the public. While my survey showed 6% margin of error based on sample size alone, it could be much higher than that if the sample is not representative of the 2026 voter.

For instance, if most of the responses were from those that do not trust the BOCC. That sways the results. Yes, there are many that do not trust local government, but is that the majority of voters? I have no clue.

Same with the Chamber survey. They have no clue who filled it out. It was open to everyone. Is it a correct representation of the 2026 voter? No clue... but the BOCC is supposed to base this decision on that data?

Point is, if you filled out the surveys, your voice was heard. The commissioners decided they wanted to hear more from you.

2) Another Consultant? More tax dollars? Why can't the county simply use the staff we have?

Yes, potentially another consultant, but this time it is different. There will be ZERO tax dollars going towards this if they are brought on. It will be private donations that pay for it. I am against consultants as much as anyone, as you see here, but this is not the same thing.

The consultant that comes in will be an expert in market research. They will know how to reach the community and get the true voice of the 2026 voter. They have all the tools to do this. They know how to do this. It will provide the commissioner with precise information for them to know exactly what the community will support or if they even support it.

Best of all... ZERO tax dollars. Yes, there is a fee of $25k to get started. But that has to be raised privately. Who will donate? My guess is businesses and people like developers. Why? Because writing a check for whatever amount likely pays for itself in the long run if the sales tax is implemented.

Think of it this way. If a developer writes a $10k check towards this effort and the BOCC decides to reduce millage if it passes... then not only do YOU save money, but the developer saves money too... likely more than the $10k they spent.

If the results of this show failure, then they are out $10k. Risk/Reward.... Also, unlike rumors on social media, most developers like the communities they build in.. so are willing to donate money to help communities.... and most agree the sales tax will help.

So expect to see businesses and developer types contribute to bring in an outside agency.

As for staff.. I have no doubt staff could handle this if they were allowed... but state law does not allow the government to advocate for this effort. They simply cannot do this in house by state law. The ONLY options are to vote to put it on the ballot without a public effort behind it.... or encourage a public effort to rally behind it.

They chose to allow another entity to come in to collect data and then do the public education if commissioners vote to put it on the ballot.

3) They are afraid to vote for this for election purposes.... They are afraid of DOGE... They are just afraid.

I can't speak on the election aspect other than only 2 members are up for re-election in 2026... Bays and Finegan. Both seem supportive of letting the citizens decide to approve this. I don't think the non-decision yesterday was due to politics. I think it was due to the fact they want more information.

As for DOGE, the county has sent in the paperwork requested by the state. This was sent in August. Nothing has been heard since. I do not think they are afraid of what DOGE will find and that is why there was no vote yesterday. I do not even think that was a consideration for them....

but for the record... Citrus has filed their documents and is waiting on what is next.

As for being afraid to make a difficult vote. This board has done it time and time again. We see 3-2 votes all the time. This group of individuals does not shy away from making decisions they want to make.

But this is NOT about them and what they want. This is about what YOU want as a citizen/voter in this county. They recognize that and have decided to allow more input.

4) Watch for connections to whoever is brought in to do this new study and make recommendations. They will hire friends.

I love a good conspiracy story as well as anyone, but this is not it. The board cannot guide this. The board cannot decide to hire a company. The board cannot choose a company to lead this... it has to come from citizens or businesses.

5) We really need this to pass, is the delay going to cause this from not being on the ballot?

Short answer is that it shouldn't. No guarantees of course, but as outlined yesterday, if the board directs staff to do the referendum language, that has to happen no later than the 1st meeting in April. That is about 6 months away. So there is time to do this and there is time to get it on the ballot.

The delay does a couple of things.

1) It allows more involvement from the community. More people can attend future town halls... more can participate online. It gets a lot more community engagement, which is important for this.

2) It allows the county to see what the state does. Remember, DeSantis is eager to remove or significantly reduce property taxes. That will hurt local tax revenues. That money will have to be replaced somewhere. The idea I see most being floated around is a sales tax increase, up to 12-15% across the board. That will allow counties to get the revenue the removal of property taxes took away.

The problem then is that the county will be giving the option for an additional one cent on top. I can think of a million reasons why voters will not approve an addition to the addition of sales tax they will be voting for on the same ballot.

"cool.. let's remove property taxes to save money, but doing so will increase sales tax... ok, that is fine.."

"Wait... this part adds 1% sales tax. Didnt I just vote to increase it to X%? Now they want more money on top? I am out."

See how that would be difficult to navigate? If that is the route the state goes, this delay allows the commissioners to see exactly what is included in their proposal before deciding on the one for Citrus.

Ok... what is next?

That is the million dollar question. My assumption is that the Chamber stays involved. I assume that they will be the ones working to get another agency here that specializes in this type of thing. Someone has to do it and it can't be the county.

So then, company comes in, does their research, gets more community involvement and presents findings to BOCC in March perhaps. Then BOCC has 2 meetings to decide the path forward using the data they collected.

If the decision is made to add it to the ballot, the language comes and the company starts to market it to the community and doing public education on it. These are things that are needed but we don't have the tools to do it.

Then voters decide to support it or not in November 2026.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. I will keep you posted as things happen.