Tone Deaf

Happy Wednesday!

If it seems quiet around here this week, it is because I am out of the country until the 5th spending the week photographing clients in Italy. The day job does have some perks. I will be in and out and on the Facebook page during the week, but may not be able to do the daily writing I try to do.

That said, I did watch the county commission meeting from the plane. I am writing this from the air as well. Thank you Delta for decent wifi.

I am actually sad I watched that meeting yesterday. This has to be the most tone deaf commission I have seen. They had a chance yesterday to do something many people have been wanting for 4 years or so... make projects less dense and require more open space.

They blew it.

I am convinced that 3 of them have regular talks with developers. That is the only conceivable reason they are doing what they are doing. We hear them recite the talking points when these things are brought up for discussion.

Take for instance yesterday. We heard for 15-20 mins or so that density is a good thing. That density creates more affordable houses. That the couple just starting out life will want that tiny lot in some development to start their lives together. The developer can make it a homesite rather than a drainage retention pond.

It is true, housing scarcity raises housing costs. Citrus County has a scarcity problem.

However, its the scarcity of a specific type of housing... apartments and multifamily type housing... not necessarily single family homes. We have hundreds of single family homes available to buy. Prices are not necessarily dropping. There are other factors like interest rates as well to consider.

Yes, if a 1500 house project gets built tomorrow and floods the market with new homes, prices across the board would drop. But that will never happen. No developer is going to build more than they can sell. It does not make sense to do that, which is why places like Citrus Hills are not completely built out yet and take decades to get there.

What we need is more apartment type options, but those are more costly for developers. To offset that, they generally want higher density to allow them to sell more units/homes. That requires less open space.

Makes sense.

However, is that what we are seeing?

We are seeing an increase in the idea of "town centers" where it is mixed use with residential and commercial projects being done in the same area. The commercial comes first... and the residential is supposed to follow.

Take 491/486 for instance. That was approved to be mixed use. Amber Ridge was supposed to include apartments along with the commercial units. Also single family homes and townhomes. We have only seen the commercial element. I have heard rumors that the apartment project will be changed a bit from what was originally proposed.

However, let's assume it goes as originally planned.

Does this not create an area with amenities that people will want to live in? Would that not draw more interest in moving there? Would that not bring more people to Citrus County, increasing the demand for those properties?

Does that not increase the costs of housing? Show me a place where projects like these actually reduce the costs of housing. I'll wait.

That is what is often overlooked here. These amenities that are coming are creating additional desire to be here. Tuscany Ranch will be a perfect example. Where Metro has done this in the past, the housing costs are over $400k for the most part. People desire to live in those types of places and will move to be there, causing rising prices as a result.

Again, density does NOT reduce costs for housing on its own. That is what this board keeps repeating but it is simply not true.

Now, back to the Comp Plan discussion.

Why do I say they are tone deaf? Because people are clamoring for more open space in these projects. We are the nature coast afterall. That is what is to be expected.

One thing I did not hear mentioned, which I would have stated had I been there, is that reverting back to the 2022 language does NOT stop developments from asking for deviations to the comp plan. That is what Dix Developments did with Crystal Ridge, which led to the change in the first place. The developers can ask for those deviations and the board can approve them.

But allowing them to do them without that request removes the ability to deny a project because it does not have enough green/open space, since it would be following the Comp Plan. The board could not use that as a reason for denial. It removes a safeguard for the county.

Rather than looking at the project and seeing how the reduced green/open space is a good thing for that project and will lead to lower costs... then approving the deviation request... they can't use that as a reason for a project they may not like.

Aside from that, the Comp Plan allows a path to reduce the green/open space below the 20% requirement (down to 10%)... affordable housing projects.

If a developer were to do one of those projects, they can get 10% green/open space without a deviation. Does that not encourage that type of growth? If it were such an issue to developers, why are they not lining up to do more dense projects for affordable housing?

Because they are not as profitable as $400k homes in upscale developments.

So they convinced 3 of the BOCC members to toss out logic in the guise of creating more housing affordability... allowing them to create more upscale homes with reduced green/open space... that will not see the thing the board wanted... more affordable houses.

Makes sense.