Sales Tax Talk

It is Wednesday, which means the County Commission agenda dropped yesterday, so we know what will be on the table for discussion at the next meeting.

It is a relatively quiet meeting likely due to the budget hearing at 5pm which may get a few people there to let the commissioners know how they feel. I cannot imagine doing a difficult BOCC meeting and then having to jump into a budget meeting.

One thing that stands out is the Chamber of Commerce will be presenting its report on the sales tax referendum.

First things first. The Chamber and those that volunteered on the committee to put it together deserve credit for stepping up and facilitating it. It was no small feat to try to coordinate that and the BOCC was not allowed to help them do it. It HAD to be community driven.

So thank you to those folks who did the work to give the community a chance to provide their input. Oftentimes, we are quick to complain or point out issues with things and how we would have wanted it this way or that way, myself included, so I wanted to take a moment to thank them for their work to do this. Without them stepping up, no one would have had a chance to give an opinion.

Now, let us dive into the report. I will be sharing some of the slides and talking a bit about them, so hang on tight.

First, this is the total number of surveys turned in. I am discussing this first because I have heard people say that they are disappointed in getting "only" 509 responses.

"How is that representative of the 115,005 registered voters in Citrus County" or things to that effect have been common comments since the results first were reported by Just Wright Citrus on Monday.

Going back to 22 years ago and my college statistics class, a population of 115,005 only needs a sample size of 383 to have a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. 509 certainly beats that and would be classified as a good sample size

So in theory, if you do this study 100 times, 95 of those times would have results that fall within the study results.

This is that result.

However, voting polls and surveys generally use the same confidence level and margin of error, yet are around 60% accurate on the whole. Why is that?

Because of the sample being used.

That is may be an issue here. I imagine a majority of the 509 people who submitted feedback are what I would call the super voter. Those who are very active in voting and tend to pay attention to issues. For the most part, they understand the issues the county faces with funding and know the reasons why the BOCC is considering this option, but they wanted more answers and information to be educated about it. They are the ones that show up to the meetings (167 total people) and ask the questions and all of that.

But, do they represent the average voter in Citrus County? How large is the group of people that only show up on election day and vote? How educated are those voters about the issues or is that the first time they are hearing about them?

I like to think all voters are educated about everything they are voting for or against, but I know that is not the case. So what is that number and is their input captured?

So when you see 60% support, be cautious of that number. It may not be representative of the total voting public in Citrus.

With this not being a presidential election year, turnout will be lower. It a governor election and we will have a new governor, so that may be a draw. If there are no democrats or 3rd party candidates in the BOCC elections, those will be over in August and will not be there in November. No Sheriff, no Supervisor of Elections, no Clerk of Courts, no Property Appraiser... things that tend to draw more voters... however, those that turn out in smaller elections like these are generally the super voters.

Could be interesting.

A few other things to note. I will be doing more later this week on specific items, so I am using this as an overview/introduction to a larger discussion

This is the duration of how long the sales tax should stay in place. The key here is that with 10+ year sunset, the county can use those funds for bonding. That allows the county to borrow money against the sales tax for larger items like 491 or courthouse and so on.

What people feel the money should be used for. No surprise to see roads leading the list.

Concerns people have about the sales tax. Government being the #1 concern is not surprising at all. This board has lost a lot of public trust recently. Many people question if they can be trusted.

However, I want to tell people this. If this sales tax goes through, I am going to assume the BOCC will include the allowable uses in the referendum language. Whatever they decide to use it on, the ONLY thing it can be used for are those things. NOTHING ELSE.

For instance, they cant earmark these funds for roads and then build an animal shelter.

Just want to clear that up from the get go.

Now yes, they can do "creative accounting" and "move" money around. For instance, they can reduce the amount of money spent on roads in the general fund and use the sales tax fund to "replace" those funds rather than in addition to what is currently spent. That would allow them to use the general fund dollars for the animal shelter.

But they could not use the sales tax funds for the animal shelter. Period.

And honestly, not sure that really helps. If citizens want roads fixed and are willing to pay towards a sales tax to get those done, I am not sure removing money from the general fund from roads and using only the sales tax funds for that will help get roads done any faster than we are doing now. It would be funding them at the same amount, just a different source. But would not be done any quicker.

I can hear the backlash on that now. So I would caution Commissioners to be mindful of that, but we will get into those conversations later this week.

For now, I want you all to start thinking about what you would like to see if this were to come... and while you are doing that... share those thoughts with commissioners. It sounds like they will be deciding on Tuesday what to use these funds for. Make sure you let them know what you think, so they can consider that along with the survey results.

rebecca.bays@citrusbocc.com
diana.finegan@citrusbocc.com
janet.barek@citrusbocc.com
jeff.kinnard@citrusbocc.com
holly.davis@citrusbocc.com